MODEL DINAMIK DALAM PENGEMBANGAN PERIKANAN PURSE SEINE DI PERAIRAN TELUK TOMINI KABUPATEN PARIGI MOUTONG

Abstract

The development of purse seine fishery is one alternative maesure to increase fish production. Various aspects must be considered in the development of purse seine fishery, including biological, technological, social and economical aspects. These are the basis required in the process of researching and designing a dynamic model for a sustainable purse seine fishery development in Parigi Moutong District. In this model, data and information were collected from actors and stakeholder involved in the system through interview and questionnaires. Interviews were done on 12 purse seine units, 10 purse seine owners selected through a census and 50 purse seine fishermen chosen using a purposive sampling technique. Data were analyzed using a surplus production method, linier programming method; financial analysis of fishing effort by NPV, net B/C and IRR methods, policy development analysis using AHP method and dynamic modeling using a system analysis method. Validation test of the developed dynamic model showed that the value of absolute mean error (AME) equal to P = 0.043, absolute variation error (AVE) equal to P = 0.070, the Utheil coefficient equal to P 0.035. These meant that there was no difference between simulation and actual values. Durbin Watson test (DW-TEST) value which was 1.87 indicated that deviation pattern was less sharp, while value of Kalman Filter (KF) which was 041 (KF<0.5) showed that the agreement between simulation to the actual values was slightly below the expectation. The performance of the developed dynamic model before and after examination of sensitivity test model using a trend function showed an improvement following an asymptotic pattem during 25 year. This indicated that functional intervention by using the trend function was sufficiently effective and adaptive.